Laura, very provocative!
Can we discuss what this “self-publishing, pay per print” model might look like?
Laura,
I agree 100% with your post. Eventually, books will be non-existent. I even quoted you!
As much as I love books, I am excited to have access to them online. I feel that the internet is flattening the world at such an alarming rate that our world will be near unrecognizable in just a few years. By the way, my favorite book has always been Fahrenheit 451 by Ray Bradbury. 451 degrees is the temperature at which book paper will burn and “firefighters” were actually book burners. I feel like this change is either the culmination of my fears of this or the elimination. If books are indeed going to continue to be accessible, then my fears will be assuaged, if not and people or businesses start charging for valuable parts of the internet, then i am terrified.
Book publishing will be different, and this equals more opportunity for everybody concerned. Now people that have not had the resources but have a passion to write can get published. This levels the playing field. The reading public will benefit greatly because their options will be greater and content accessibility will be streamlined. Top publishing houses will have to move over or be run over, because they have controlled the market for so long it is akin to a river bursting with a thousand tributaries forming. In Nathan Branford’s blog, he talks about superior content and lots of new jobs in editing.
Hardback books will still be an option, just not the only option. Bookstores will not be your huge conglomerates as more independent bookstores can open or re-open and serve the needs of their direct communities. I like what James Bickers says, “The role of traditional publishers will remain, although with adaptations, regardless of format.”
What Will the Publishing Industry Look Like in Five Years? | Nathan Branford, Author
http://blog.nathanbransford.com/2011/03/what-will-publishing-industry-look-like.html
What will bookstores look like in five years? | RetailCustomerExperience.com, James Bickers http://www.retailcustomerexperience.com/article/139991/What-will-bookstores-look-like-in-five-years
Heidi,
Outstanding thoughts!
And you offer an omen: “Top publishing houses will have to move over or be run over, because they have controlled the market for so long it is akin to a river bursting with a thousand tributaries forming.”
I agree that the publishing industry will need to adapt to the new digital publishing arena. However, the self-publishing wave creates a “wild west” of information being produced. How do readers know what is credible or not? This is scary due to the fact that there would be less regulation (i.e., publishers) to keep the garbage out of print. Will anyone set up review boards to classify a self-publisher’s work? I am very interested to see what will become of e-publishing and self-publishing industry. In the past, I believe there was a very good reason why some books never made it to print. Chad Post, Publisher of Open Letter Books, recently stated, “Self-publishing cheapens the art of writing. That . . . and I’m probably old and out of touch with pop culture. And for those reasons I never wanted to get involved in this whole e-book thing (2011).” Therefore, self-publishers must be bonafide by a higher authority to solidify them for the future.
Reference:
Post, C. W. (13 June, 2011). Why selling E-books at 99 Cents Destroys Minds. Retrieved from
http://publishingperspectives.com/2011/06/selling-ebooks-99-cents-destroys-minds/
Hi Jamie,
Great points about the “wild, wild” west and the quality issues with self-publishing! The underpinning theme behind this potential future of self-publishing is the market will decide the winners, not an editor, book reviewer, or publisher.
Badly written books will fail because there will not buyers. The books that meet a need will succeed. Therefore, the self-publishing model of the future will be market-driven. But—will this work?
Heidi, Digital publishing launched the era of the blog, the e-book, self-publishing, etc. These products of the digital age continue to emerge as consumer preferences are evolving. This is driving the need for efficient publishing solutions. One trend in the digital publishing industry is the use of Knowledge Process Outsourcing services (KPO). KPO services help cut time-to-publish by 50%, and reduce cost up to 70% (Ajax, 2009) A KPO can provide archiving, content optimization, and other publishing related services all geared to speed the process and get the content to market. Outsourcing puts parts of the process in the hands of those with the core competencies to make it more efficient and effective. Not everyone seeks to be a published writer, and in years past, only those with a reputation had access to publishers. Today, you can be published with great ease compared to the past, if you so desire. The era of digital publishing and the emerging trend of using KPO’s can help make you a seasoned and widely-read author, without needing “connections” or a reputation.
References:
Ajax (May, 2009). The New Trend in the Publishing Industry – KPO Solutions. Articlesbase. Retrieved from: http://www.articlebase.com
The publishing businesses should have seen this coming. Seeing their old editions and volumes pilling up in their storage facilities then seeing the structure and ability of Google should have awakened unction instead, as Quittner et al. claim, “they prescribed old, tired fixes-cost cutting, outsourcing back-office operations-but failed to address the core problem: Distribution no longer had value” and they did this “because the old way of doing business has been blindingly successful”. With all the free publishing out there now I imagine a world of successful authors and publishers being rewarded for their specific content having expert and referent power.
Reference:
Quittner, J., Kowitt, B., & Tkaczyk, C. (2010). THE FUTURE OF READING. (cover story). Fortune, 161(3), 62-67. Retrieved from EBSCOhost.
The publishing process will change just like the way we face and deal with other new technologies. How much, will be determined by consumers and their individual choices. For many consumers they aren’t really worried about the publishing industry and the quality indicators that should be followed. All they really want is a good story. It becomes a means to an end. But writing and publishing as taken on a whole new dimension. “All you need to write is a computer, a Wi-Fi card and a place to sit at Starbucks”. Does this mean that for all those that are writing now, it is worth reading, not at all? We are now, through the use of the internet, providing a way for everyone to express themselves. “The privilege of authorship was limited to the few: the best, the brightest, the luckiest, those with the right connection”. What we have now and going forward, is an avenue to bypass the usual quality-controls set by editors and publishers, to a system so everyone can just ponder their thoughts and ideas for people to latch onto.
http://www.english.illinois.edu/-people-/facility/debaron/582/…/shouldwrite/pdf
Suzanne,
Great points!
Please use APA or another method so that I can distinguish your opinion various the sources in this text!
Suzanne,
I love your comment on how you believe it will become a means to an end…this is very true! Technological evolution is in our hands.
People will want at least some change, some people may want book to reads itself to them. Bookstores may be going bankrupt because most of the materials will be available electronically. Access to books will be through the ultra fast Internet connection. Internet will become like cable TV. Everything that you do will be there via major services such as Amazon, Google, Apple Fox and so on (Cheryl Morgan). Also the content on the published books will be shorter and they will be sold digitally. “Meta data is the sales tool of the digital world. Search optimized, evolving, rich, Meta data will become the single most important marketing tool for any title. It will need to be organic, enhanced and updated to reflect the interests of the moment. Discover-ability in digital stores will be absolutely key (but by then we’ll be calling it something different).” Despite all the above changes, I still think that the will still be balance between regular textbooks, and e-books. As we have all seen, the music stores are still there and surviving despite accessibility of downloadable music.
Reference:
Jameswoollam. (2011). Fundamental change in the book publishing process. Retrieved from: http://www.jameswoollam.com/2011/06/fundamental-change-in-the-book-publishing-process/
In response to the question about the publishing process in the next five years, I agree with Laura Murray. She posted, “Eventually books will be rare artifacts, beautiful representations of a wonderful by-gone industry”. Technology has taken over and everything is going digital. Eventually, there will not be a need for the publishing process.
It is important that emerging writers do not focus on overcoming the Internet, but joining the nature of the Internet and adapt to the changes that technology brings. The internet has forced a new definition of writing. Rodney F. Dick (2006) noted that as our definition of writing expands, so too must our understanding of and familiarization with composing processes in these new media environments. It will now be important that emerging writers focus on their development of their technological literacy skills and knowledge. Their development needs to be in a computer-mediated composing environment, specifically related to the creation of Web-based documents.
Reference:
Dick, R. F. (2006). DOES INTERFACE MATTER? A STUDY OF WEB AUTHORING AND EDITING BY INEXPERIENCED WEB WRITERS. Business Communication Quarterly, 69(2), 205-215. doi:10.1177/108056990606900214
Laura & Christian,
Interesting! So…you are predicting the demise of books?
E-books and Kindles were going to make books old news. Will it happen today?
Nuleadership,
It is happending as we write! Leapfrog has developed a similar product for children as well.
Kevin,
Nice thoughts!
Please use APA or another method so that I can distinguish your opinion various the sources in this text!
In 1978, F. W. Lancaster predicted a paperless society in which one “would use a terminal to maintain electronic notebooks, compose reports for subsequent electronic publication, access sources of information in the form of databases, index and store information…Publications would be electronic…” He was ahead of his time, and many in academia disagreed with his predictions. He was very excited at the capabilities of technology, but Lancaster revisited his thoughts in 1985 and again in 1999 for a status update—and found a dehumanizing effect not anticipated. In 1985 he said, “The impact is determined by the qualities of the humans who exploit it, rather than by properties inherent in the technology itself.”
Lancaster was able to accurately predict many aspects of a paperless society over 30 years ago, and as major book retailers closing, his predictions are still proving correct. Digital book publishing is the growing trend, and will be commonplace within the next five years.
References:
Lancaster, F. W. (1985). The Paperless Society revisited. American Libraries, 16(8), 553. Retrieved from EBSCOhost.
Lancaster, F. W. (1999). Second Thoughts on the Paperless Society. Library Journal, 124(15), 48. Retrieved from EBSCOhost.
I’m sure when you stated “book retailers closing”, none of us would have thought today, tomorrow, but it has happened. On Friday, Borders Group Inc, started winding down operations with liquidation sales at all 259 Borders superstores, 114 Express stores and 26 Airport stores (Hickok, 2011). But there seems to be a difference of opinion on the reason why. Sean Dietz, manager of Central Street Books, believes it is more from completion in the market. He stated, “Borders greatest threats were places like Amazon, Inc. Big buck retailers try to stock everything, but Amazon really does stock everything and at a cheap discount”. But Scott Key, manager for McKay’s, seems to think it is more of internal issues rather than changing trends. “It is not a result of a change in the reading public, but ongoing problems with management”. (Hickok, 2011)
Most likely, it is a combination of both. With new and changing trends in any industry, the internal operations and management must change and adapt. Doing things like we have always done, doesn’t keep businesses alive or competitive.
Reference: Hickok, Megan (2011, July 22). Borders Liquidation gets local book sellers talking. The Knoxville New Sentinel Co., pp. B1
Hi Suzanne,
I agree with you in that the industry must be willing to adapt to change. Lancaster stated in 1978 (quoting himself in 1985), “I expected such an electronic system to emerge, first because of opportunity…Second, I pointed to the soaring costs of distributing information as physical artifacts—books printed on paper—and suggested that it would soon be economically impractical to continue this form of publication.” He was referring to books being available on computers.
Higher costs—in distribution, overhead, labor, etc. make it impossible for bookstores to compete with the efficient super-giant Amazon. Bookstores like Borders didn’t adapt quickly enough.
Reference:
Lancaster, F. W. (1985). The Paperless Society revisited. American Libraries, 16(8), 553. Retrieved from EBSCOhost.
I agree that books, much like CD’s and DVD’s will be obsolete within the next 25 years, much like the vinyl record and the slide rule. Also, I find it important for individuals to adapt to these changes, publishers especially. The large publishing companies are looking at many of the same challenges that record companies did just a few years ago. Large publishers have been selling their books to Amazon “wholesale” which enables Amazon to sell them even cheaper, but now that these e-books are growing in popularity the large publishers are scrambling to regain their profit margins. Even worse than the thin margins from e-books would be if they raise prices too high and piracy grows in popularity. According to Credit Suisse, an investment bank, printing and shipping traditional books only represent about 10% of the retail price, but now the commercial publishing firms are investing in the internet. Distributing books over the internet securely is costly. Some large Publishing firms are also starting web sites and online groups in order to increase their reach. Also, a new growing trend of “enriched e-books” that include audio, video and other media.
(Mar 31st 2010). E-publish or perish. The Economist. http://www.economist.com/node/15819008
There are four main topics that traditional publishing will need to address in order to remain competitive in the future. These are self-publishing, direct-to-consumer marketing, literary agents, and book access. The traditional model won’t go away completely, but with publishers becoming more and more risk-averse, the model has to change. While the number of bookstores is declining, opportunities to sell books and flood the market with books continue to increase. Social buying will be a trend, as we are already seeing this happen through avenues such as Amazon. Making the consumer aware of the publisher can prove to be a difficult task, but profitable if done well. Savvy agents will survive, as survival of the fittest may take place. Book shows are becoming less concerned with how a book is published and more concerned with quality. This is good news for authors who were previously rejected by publishers. There will be ample opportunities for self-publishing to finally get its dues and the stigma that has always followed will diminish (Sansevieri, 2011).
References:
Sansevieri, P. (2011, April 26). The future of publishing. Retrieved from
http://www.huffingtonpost.com
The next five years in Publishing will see a near exponential expansion toward the e-book, e-zine, and e-brary concepts. Today’s technological advances make it possible to satisfy our need for information, communication, and entertainment in a variety of ways. Devices such as I-Pads and Kindles will bring the joy of reading to the consumer in a multi-sensory fashion using not only text, but audio and video as well. For people that want to have their paper book to cozy up with, they can still have those too. Only, in the future, they will order the book online. It will be printed on-demand and shipped directly the consumer (Kaser, 2010). The days of books being held in warehouses, bookstores, or libraries will diminish over time. For all the writers out there who want their message read, they will have to find new avenues to market their work. One way will be through teaser documents, released free online, but with a link to buy the rest of the work in print on demand format.
Reference:
Kaser, D. Publishers Get Bullish on Ebooks in Context. Information Today. Vol 27. Issue 11. Dec 2010. Retrieved from http://web.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.lmunet.edu/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=7&hid=12&sid=d433f790-93ae-4bc0-a449-9dcb36fa1ea7%40sessionmgr111
The publishing process in five years will be very different from traditional methods. Helen Anderson explains; since e-books are less expensive to produce, sell, and distribute, hard copies will be cannibalized forcing publishing companies to find new innovative business models that focus on value creation such as a mix of free and paid content and author participation. Authors may find that self-publishing is more cost effective and easier to reach the targeted audience, assuming they find the right channels to penetrate, both on the web and via hand held devices like the iPad and other tablet versions like Amazon’s Kindle. Readers will move toward this new technology quicker due to improvements in the reading experience, and “while publishers face an uphill struggle to persuade readers to accept pay content online, extending content to new platforms can be seen as adding additional value and therefore is something to pay for.” The bottom line is that the industry will continue to evolve and drive competition among publishers and force authors to learn the ins and outs of online publishing to survive.
Reference: Anderson, H. (2011, April). IPad: The savior of digital publishing. Journal of Internet Law, 14(10). 15-20. Retrieved from EBSCOHost
The printed version of books looks to have a specific direction that is magical but not surprising. If you are familiar with the new RedBox movie boxes outside of WalGreens and Kroger stores, then you are looking at the new face of publishing. According to a show I heard on National Public Radio (NPR), there is a new, convenient kid on the publishing block called the “Espresso Book Machine” which allows individuals to print their books on demand.
The Espresso, owned by Blackwell, was featured on Talk of the Nation, March 11, 2011, NPR mentions that “machines like this can put an end to ‘out of stock’ and can help aspiring authors self publish” (NPR, 2011). Looking like a giant copy machine, The Espresso Book Machine, was the brain child of American publisher Jason Epstein. It prints more than 100 pages a minute, and was described as “an ATM for books” (The Guardian, 2009, para. 8).
Flood, A. (2009, April 24). Blackwell’s unveils Espresso Book Machine – Any title printed while you wait. London, England: The Guardian. Retrieved from http://gu.com/p/276vj
National Public Radio (Producer). (2011, March 11). Book machines print while you wait. Talk of the Nation. Retrieved from http://www.npr.org/
I agree with the majority of posters–traditional print books are something that will quickly be seen as outdated. With technology moving at such lightning speeds, the publishing industry should not view themselves as so elite that they are the exception to the technology revolution happening all around us.
Just as music and movies have moved almost completely to an all digital format, the print media will have to move in the same direction. “Today, we’re seeing that the publishing industry is just focusing on making ebooks available, but doing little to recognize how consumer behavior is changing in how they interact with media (which is as big a part of this market change as any new method of distribution). If the publishing industry is going to figure this out, it needs to not look for some silver bullet that brings things back to “the way it used to be,” but to really spend time trying to understand what people are doing today with media, ” (Masnick 2010).
Reference: Masnick, Mike. (2010, February 10). Former Music Exec Tells Book Publishers They’re Acting Just Like The Recording Industry 10 Years Ago. Tech Dirt. Retrieved July 23, 2011 from http://www.techdirt.com.
According to Brent Arends, Barnes and Nobles stock has decreased greatly over the past five years, however the e-book sales have increased over 51%. Amazon sells more e-books than hardbacks. With the increase in e-readers, one will see more e-books than actual hardcovers printed within the next five years. As with music stores, brick and mortar bookstores will also diminish as hard print becomes downloads. With the upsurge of the e-books and diminish of the paper, the publishing process will also see numerous changes. I believe that there will be a great reduction in the number of publishers, editors, and literary agents. More authors will post his/her works online and with optimism, hope that many readers will purchase the works. This is a time where another market may become advantageous, one of social media and marketing in order to generate interest. Baron states that “no matter what you or I think of their products, writers gaining access to the internet seem to have no trouble finding a subject to write about, and no trouble finding readers to read their output.”
References:
Arends, B. (2010, August 17). Why your bookstore is going out of business. Retrieved July 22, 2011, from MSN.com: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/why-your-bookstore-is-going-out-of-business.aspx.
Baron, D. (2011). Should everybody write? The destabilizing technologies of communication. Retrieved July 22, 2011, from Illinois.Edu: http://www.english.illinois.edu/-people-/faculty/debaron/582/582%20pdfs/shouldwrite.pdf.
Within five years, we can expect publishing to evolve into electronic processes versus the traditional processes the industry is used to. In their article “Strategic use of E-commerce in the Transformation of the Publishing Industry”, the researchers identify several advantages and disadvantages that emerging writers must be aware of in order to succeed during this time of change. Advantages include streamlined editing, proofing, and printing processes resulting in reduced printing costs and time to market. Disadvantages include relatively high cost to the consumer (especially if an e-book viewer is required), and questions of information protection (Gordon, Kung & Dyck, 2008). As e-publishing advances, we can expect to see common standards emerge resulting in a mainstream status. New information technology will likely advance and provide copyright owners the means by which to monitor and enforce their rights (Gordon, Kung & Dyck, 2008). It is unlikely that traditional publishing will ever completely be eliminated, however we can expect the industry to change significantly. In order to be successful, authors must embrace these changes in their processes.
Gordon, L.C., Kung, D.S., & Dyck, H. (2008). Strategic use of E-Commerce in the Transformation of the Publishing Industry. Communications of the IIMA, 8 (4), 65-78.
Disruptive change continues to hit the publishing world with the announced closure of Borders @ http://www.kitv.com/r/28603698/detail.html.
“The rapidly changing book industry, eReader revolution and turbulent economy have brought us to where we are now,” said Borders Group President Mike Edwards.
Professor Green
The technological developments have such a powerful cause and effect in so many different areas. As we go on in time, the book and magazine industry will continue to move from paper to e-books and online sources. This change causes positive effects on the end of the publisher and of the consumer. The publishing companies and distribution companies can see negative effects in the future of the publishing process. Nathan Bransford comments that E-books are becoming more and more a part of the landscape. Consumers are no longer carrying paperback or hardback books around, but instead they are replaced by a Kindle or similar product that purchases books from online distributers like Amazon and similar natured sites.
Bransford, N. (2011). What will the publishing industry look like in five years? Retrieved from http://blog.nathanbransford.com
Much confusion and misunderstandings arise if people speak about electronic publishing and actually mean different things. Whereas traditional publication was a much better-defined dichotomous event, with a clear mission of transporting research results to the scientific community and the public, publication in the electronic age is much more a continuum reflecting, and occurring during, the entire research process. One of the main benefits of electronic publishing is speed and control of the publication timeline. So if your book needs to be published as soon as possible, electronic publishing is definitely the way to go. When you use electronic publishing, you also control the -content and book design. These benefits make self-publishing ideal for those who want to use the book to grow their business, start a business, or establish expertise quickly. On the other hand, there are many who feel that electronic publishing will solve many problems. But it evident that the understanding problem of how to get people to pay for materials that appear on the web has yet to be solved. (Schiffrin, 2001).
Reference
Andre, S. (2001). The Business of Books: How the International Conglomerates Took over Publishing and Changed the Way We Read. New York, NY: Verso Books
The Internet is constantly growing and opens up a whole new world to people. Books can now be stored on one little notepad instead of carrying around heavy and bulky books. Electronic publishing seems to be the most accessible to the most amounts of people over the largest distance. The Internet is putting publishers out of business and making it more difficult for self-publishers to make themselves successful. If the publishers utilize the benefit of items such as the Kindle, “they will be able to find a means of charging for content presented on the Internet, as well as increasing Internet advertising revenues (Copeland, M.V.).”
Copeland, M.V. (2009). The end of paper? Fortune, 159(5), 66-72. Retrieved
From EBSCOhost.
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In order to have competitive advantage the publishing industry will possibly use a paradigm taken from content marketing. Publishing may evolve toward the selling of small portions of content versus a “complete work” with the challenge of creating value to the small amount of content contingent upon what consumers want. As George Lossius reports, “The main challenge for businesses advancing into this highly lucrative and polymorphic e-market will be the capability to granularise and sell targeted portions of content as opposed to large chunks, but once this has been achieved, publishers can expect to see a huge return on investment and hard work paid off.” The ability to value small portions of content for the purpose of marketing the “complete work” or simply marketing the smaller portions may have an impact on the future of publishing.
Reference:
Lossius, G. (2010). The digital crossroads. Bookseller, (5457), 11. Retrieved from EBSCOhost.
Jeremy, excellent!
How do you think this concept will be rolled-out?